Steering through rough seas

Refugee politics. Photo: Judy Green The surge in asylum seeker arrivals is causing angst in a Government with little room to move on the issue. THE Rudd Government is staring at a problem it fervently hoped would not reemerge. The number of asylum seekers arriving by boat has increased substantially, and is expected to continue to do so. When on Thursday a vessel with 69 passengers was intercepted, it was the fourth in less than a week. One of the earlier three had to be rescued while still outside Australian waters; it was in distress and there were fears the people could soon perish. Advertisement: Story continues below Nearly 1600 people have arrived so far this year compared with 161 for the whole of last year and 148 in 2007. We're certainly not back to 2001, when more than 5500 came, but the trend is unmistakable. Christmas Island's huge 800bed facility, ordered by the Howard government and once thought destined to become a white elephant, can't accommodate the flow. The island can take about 1300 at a squeeze; this week there were 900 with another 150 on the way. Double pressure is worsening the situation. The Taliban's increasing success has meant more Afghans (who mostly come through Indonesia) are on the move. And as Immigration Minister Chris Evans describes it, a ''second supply chain'' has recently opened up from Sri Lanka, with some boats coming directly from there. The Government is deeply concerned about both what's happening, and where things could go politically. Evans says the about 500 arrivals in September are ''way out of proportion'' to what's been seen previously, ''the worst month probably since 200102'', and a ''worrying development''. Much is at stake for Evans, who has overseen important and desirable reforms to process people faster and treat them more humanely Rosetta Stone . As the numbers escalate, pressure to roll back the changes is likely to intensify. So far, the issue has been largely under the political radar. Opposition spokeswoman Sharman Stone has ramped up the rhetoric but carries little weight publicly and could be moved when Malcolm Turnbull finally reshuffles. The Coalition is divided about exploiting the border issue, which caused internal rows in government. But it is turning more attention to it. Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce, just back from Christmas Island, claimed this week that a majority of the asylum seekers appeared to be ''economic migrants''. He said suspicion of bona fides should be raised by healthylooking 20 to 40yearold males who brought with them multivitamins, were concerned about putting on too much weight, and called friends to tell them of their arrival. Whether or not Joyce's observations are accurate, he shouldn't be written off as a redneck or political opportunist. The tone of Joyce who was outspoken in 2006 in support of West Papuan asylum seekers and has a brother involved with refugees is quite different from the Coalition's 2001 demonising language. He stresses those he saw on Christmas Island are ''good people'' but argues the line between people leaving in fear of persecution and those escaping a poor life is being blurred. Most claimants are being approved as refugees: so far this year 641 have been granted permanent visas; only a handful have returned home, going voluntarily. Some who have been rejected are in various stages of appeal.

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